NIFTY & BANK NIFTY VIEW FOR 01/09/2016

FRUSTRATED BEARS...!!!

IN OUR LAST POST AS WE HAD SAID CLEARLY THAT WE DO SEE UPSIDE BUT THAT MAY NOT BE MAJOR...!!!

LETS TRY TO UNDERSTAND CHANGES IN OI DATA.

Nifty

September Series

Right from 8400  to 9100 PE not even single PE undergone liquidation this shows desperation of trapped traders. There is no major change on total OI part on PE front that indicates that still 8500 PE is strong base. 

On CE front right from 8100 to 8800 CE all strike prices undergone liquidation. Still additions in 8900 & 9000 CE indicates strong resistance formation at that level. 

If we talk about valuation perspective then there is not big difference in nearby OTM CE & PE Front. Both are almost equally valued. 

Highest OI tag is with 8500 PE & 9000 CE.

Bank Nifty 

September Series (Weekly Expiry - Immediate)

From 19500 to 19700 and now to 20000 Bulls managed rather we shall say forced Bears to change highest OI mark on CE front in less than 3 days....!!!! That shows strength in momentum. Nothing much needs to be said about this options chain as we have expiry today. 

Highest OI tag is with 19500 PE & 20000 CE.

September Series (Monthly Expiry)
As discussed in our last post still long way to go for this option chain expiry nothing major can be found at present. Again this is confirmed by PE front changes as no major liquidation can be found till 19000 levels. 

Highest OI tag is with 19000 PE & 20000 CE.

NOW LETS SEE SOME IMPORTANT NIFTY RATIO

PE RATIO FOR NIFTY STANDS AT 24.09

PE RATIO FOR BANK NIFTY STANDS AT 29.21

SEPTEMBER SERIES
NIFTY PCR ON BASIS OF OI IS 1.21
BANK NIFTY PCR ON BASIS OF OI IS 0.98

FINAL CONCLUSION

Nifty & Bank Nifty
Now Nifty PCR is really very high and that may result into downside of 100-200 points in Nifty very soon. Accordingly only we have taken entry in 8800 PE. 

Now Lets see Bank Nifty.
As today is weekly expiry some volatile moves can be seen but due to high Nifty PCR we may see some downside. Bank Nifty monthly OC PCR is neutral at present. 

NIFTY

Nifty Last Close 8786
Support - 8760-8750, 8700-8690, 8665-8660 & 8630-8620
Resistance - 8845-8855 & 8990-9000

BANK NIFTY

Nifty Last Close 19788
Support - 19750-19765, 19655-19640, 19555-19530 & 19460-19440
Resistance - 19840-19860 & 19960-19985

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PLEASE NOTE THESE MOVES ARE AS PER CHARTS AND OPTIONS CHAIN WHICH MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. WE ARE NOT SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY PROFIT OR LOSS FOR ANY TRADES EXECUTED ON BASIS OF THIS POST. WHILE UTMOST CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN WHILE ANALYSING CHARTS & OPTIONS DATA BUT IF INCASE THERE IS ANY HUMAN ERROR WE ARE APOLOGISE FOR IT.

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ABOUT AUTHOR ~ MANUSH VADHER

WORKING AS SHAREKHAN SUB BROKER AND HOLDING MASTER DEGREE IN FINANCE HAVING EXPERIENCE OVER 10 YEARS IN CAPITAL MARKET. HE IS ALSO CERTIFIED AS RESEARCH ANALYST FROM SEBI. FURTHER HE HAS CLEARED INVESTMENT ADVISER LEVEL - 1 FROM NISM IN 2014.