NIFTY & BANK NIFTY VIEW FOR 29/07/2016

SOME OF YOU HAVE ASKED LOGIC BEHIND GOING ITM CALL BUYING IN NIFTY WAS BASED ON 2 STUDY.

1st STUDY WAS TO HAVE LESS IMPACT ON PREMIUM & INTRINSIC VALUE AND ALSO BETTER EXIT PROBABILITY/CHANCES IN CASE OF SOME UPSWING FOR PARTIAL  PROFIT BOOKING (ALREADY BOOKED 2 TIMES 40-50 POINTS)

2nd REASON WAS 8500 PE AUGUST SERIES WAS HAVING HIGHEST PE OI SO THERE WAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE THAT NIFTY MAY SLIP BELOW 8500 ON CLOSING BASIS FOR 3 SESSIONS IN ROW.

NOW LETS HAVE LOOK AT NIFTY DAILY CHART

In above chart we can see that with some consolidation and mixed move somehow bulls managed to achieve target. But still weekly closing shall play crucial role. 

ANYWAY LETS TRY TO UNDERSTAND/STUDY OPTIONS DATA.

Nifty

August Series

Mammoth additions can be seen on both side of options chain but additions in 8600 PE is eye catching. In last 10-15 sessions highest OI tag shifted to 8500 PE from 8000 PE. Also there was good OI at 8800 CE but again additions in 9000 CE is again giving comfort that though 8800 may act as hurdle but not very big one. 

Highest OI tag is with 8500 PE & 9000 CE.

Bank Nifty 
4th August 2016 Option chain (Weekly Expiry)

Still about 5 sessions to go for this expiry and 19000 PE has gained highest OI tag. So there are very thin chances we may see 3 close below this level in sequential manner. 19500 CE added more than 125k shares in OI so that may still act as stiff resistance.

Highest OI tag is with 19000 PE & 19500 CE.

August Series (Monthly Expiry)

Good additions were made in 18500 & 19000 PE which resulted almost same OI in 18500 & 19000 PE so if in today's session 19000 PE gets highest OI tag we would not be surprised. On CE front all 3, 19000-19500-20000 all have got almost similar OI but next next 3 sessions if 20000 gets highest OI we would not we shocked. 

Highest OI tag is with 18500 PE & 19500 CE.  
(Already change in highest OI on PE front took place as expected from 18000 to 18500) 

NOW LETS SEE SOME IMPORTANT NIFTY RATIO

PE RATIO FOR NIFTY STANDS AT 23.69
PE RATIO FOR BANK NIFTY STANDS AT 26.99

AUGUST SERIES
NIFTY PCR ON BASIS OF OI IS 0.85
BANK NIFTY PCR ON BASIS OF OI IS 0.97

FINAL CONCLUSION

Nifty & Bank Nifty
Lets first see Nifty.
PCR is in favour of Bull at present now as explained on chart nifty has completed pattern target of 8650-8670 levels. Now if we see some consolidation then it would not be surprise. Further to add today's close will draw/design road map for 8800 or above levels (shall be explained in next post as it is on weekly chart and today is last day of week) 

Now Lets see Bank Nifty.
Looking at OI data there is big confusion as on both side ATM strike price and 2 OTM are fighting for highest OI tag so it would be  good strategy to be on no trade zone at present.  


Open Position at Present (Confirmed with you all)

NIFTY trade is on basis of OC and chart. (Few from you have booked 40-50 points gains 2 times)

Dr Reddy 3200 CE bought at 60 SL 25. (Maintain strict SL)

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STANDARD DISLCOSURE:-

PLEASE NOTE THESE MOVES ARE AS PER CHARTS AND OPTIONS CHAIN WHICH MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. WE ARE NOT SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY PROFIT OR LOSS FOR ANY TRADES EXECUTED ON BASIS OF THIS POST. WHILE UTMOST CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN WHILE ANALYSING CHARTS & OPTIONS DATA BUT IF INCASE THERE IS ANY HUMAN ERROR WE ARE APOLOGISE FOR IT.

WE REQUEST ALL READERS TO GIVE THEIR FEEDBACK ON NIFTY50STRIKER@GMAIL.COM OR BY CALLING ON 08866145155 OR BY COMMENTING ON THIS BLOG POST.

ABOUT AUTHOR ~ MANUSH VADHER

WORKING AS SHAREKHAN SUB BROKER AND HOLDING MASTER DEGREE IN FINANCE HAVING EXPERIENCE OVER 10 YEARS IN CAPITAL MARKET. 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY VIEW FOR 04/03/2016