NIFTY VIEW AS ON 05/10/2015

IN OUR LAST POST WE HAD GIVE OUR VIEW FOR NIFTY AND TRIED TO EXPLAIN THAT ROAD AHEAD FOR BULLS  IS NOT EASY AS IT LOOKS. 

THOSE WHO MISSED LAST POST ARE REQUESTED TO CLICK ON THE LINK BELOW TO HAVE BETTER UNDERSTANDING. 

http://goo.gl/sI2Fts

NOW IF YOU HAVE GONE THROUGH OUR THAT BLOG POST THEN YOU MUST HAVE GOT AN IDEA THAT WE HAD SAID THAT AS PER VALUATIONS ASPECT NIFTY WAS BIT EXPENSIVE AND THERE AFTER WE DID NOT HAD SINGLE CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL. (DESPITE OF HAVING SURPRISE 50BPS RATE CUT BY RBI)

NOW IF WE TALK ROAD AHEAD FOR NIFTY THEN WE STILL SAY IN ORDER TO TRAP RETAIL/SMALL TRADERS NIFTY MAY GIVE UPSIDE MOVE TILL 8220-8250 LEVELS (ONLY TO FILL GAP OF 8225-8092) BELOW CHART SHALL GIVE CLEAR IDEA ABOUT OUR LEVELS.

LETS HAVE A LOOK AT OPTIONS DATA.

CALLS		PUTS
STRIKE PRICE	OI	STRIKE PRICE	OI
8300	4185400	7500	4829475
8000	4069925	7800	3888350
8200	3974350	7400	2891250

SO FROM OPTIONS DATA ALSO WE CAN SEE UPSIDE CAPPED IN THIS SERIES IS MAX TO MAX IS 8300 (EXTREME CASE BUT FOR THAT 8000 NEEDS TO BE CROSSED DECISIVELY) THEN UPSIDE CAPTION COMES AT 8200-8300 LEVELS AS BOTH STRIKE PRICE CE IS ALMOST SAME.

WHEREAS ON DOWNSIDE 7500 MAY ACT AS STRONG SUPPORT BUT BEFORE THAT WE FEEL 7800 SHALL AS STRONG SUPPORT TOO. NIFTY PCR AS PER OI BASIS COMES AT 1.07 WHICH AGAIN REFLECT NIFTY IS SLIGHTLY OVERBOUGHT AT PRESENT FOR THIS SERIES AT PRESENT STAGE. NOW IF WE SEE NIFTY PE RATIO THEN AFTER LAST SESSION IT IS AGAIN ABOVE 22. (WHEN NIFTY WAS ABOVE 9000 IT WAS 24.06) SO AS PER INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE TOO NIFTY IS OVER BOUGHT AT PRESENT. 

FINAL CONCLUSION

WE MAY SEE FAKE BOUNCE TILL 8200-8300 (IN EXTREME CASE) AND THEN MARKET MAY CORRECT AND MAKE NEW LOW BELOW 7500 (VALID TILL NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE ABOVE 8300 WITH GOOD EARNINGS SEASON)

STANDARD DISLCOSURE:-

PLEASE NOTE THESE MOVES ARE AS PER CHARTS AND IT MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. WE ARE NOT SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY PROFIT OR LOSS FOR ANY TRADES EXECUTED ON BASIS OF THIS POST.

WE REQUEST ALL READER TO GIVE THEIR FEEDBACK ON NIFTY50STRIKER@GMAIL.COM OR BY COMMENTING ON THIS BLOG POST.

ABOUT AUTHOR ~ MANUSH VADHER

WORKING AS SHAREKHAN SUB BROKER AND HOLDING MASTER DEGREE IN FINANCE HAVING EXPERIENCE OVER 10 YEARS IN CAPITAL MARKET.